In an increasingly uncertain global economic landscape, the ability of central banks to anticipate, interpret, and respond to macroeconomic developments has never been more critical. Accurate forecasting and policy modeling are essential tools that guide monetary authorities in setting interest rates, managing inflation, stabilizing exchange rates, and promoting sustainable growth. This intensive course—Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Modelling for Central Banks—is designed to equip central bankers, economists, and financial analysts with the analytical and technical expertise required to build and apply robust forecasting models for policy formulation.
Participants will gain hands-on experience in developing, calibrating, and interpreting macroeconomic models that integrate real, monetary, and external sectors. The training will explore cutting-edge tools and techniques, including econometric modeling, DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) frameworks, AI-based forecasting, and scenario simulations. Emphasis will also be placed on the unique challenges facing African economies—such as commodity dependence, capital flow volatility, and climate-induced shocks—and how central banks can design adaptive forecasting frameworks for resilience.
Delivered by global and regional experts, this program by Kincaid Development Center combines theory with applied practice, empowering central banks to strengthen policy credibility and improve decision-making in rapidly changing macro-financial environments.
Participants who successfully complete the course will receive Certificate of Participation.
Course Objectives
By the end of this course, participants will be able to:
- Develop and implement macroeconomic forecasting frameworks tailored to central bank operations.
- Construct, estimate, and interpret macroeconomic and econometric models for policy formulation.
- Integrate real-time data, AI tools, and nowcasting techniques into forecasting processes.
- Assess the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on inflation, output, and exchange rates.
- Analyze the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy using model-based simulations.
- Apply scenario and stress-testing techniques for risk and shock analysis.
- Enhance communication of model results and forecasts to policymakers and stakeholders.
- Benchmark best practices in forecasting, policy modeling, and decision-support systems across central banks.
Duration
5 Days
Target Audience
- Central bank economists and policy analysts
- Research and statistics department staff
- Financial stability and monetary operations teams
- Economic planners and macroeconomic advisors
- Government agencies, ministries of finance, and regulatory bodies
- Academics and researchers in economics and finance
Course Modules
Module 1: Introduction to Macroeconomic Forecasting and Modelling
- Overview of forecasting in central banking
- Key macroeconomic indicators: GDP, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates
- Data sources, quality, and frequency considerations
- Understanding model-based vs. expert judgment forecasts
- The role of forecasting in monetary policy cycles
Module 2: Econometric Tools and Techniques for Forecasting
- Regression models, ARIMA, VAR, and VECM techniques
- Time series modeling and stationarity testing
- Cointegration analysis and error correction mechanisms
- Forecast evaluation and accuracy testing
- Forecast combination and model averaging
Module 3: Structural and DSGE Modelling
- Introduction to general equilibrium theory
- Building and calibrating DSGE models for small open economies
- Bayesian estimation and model validation
- Policy simulations using DSGE frameworks
- Case study: Using DSGE for monetary policy analysis in African economies
Module 4: Nowcasting and Real-Time Data Analytics
- High-frequency data analysis and machine learning in forecasting
- Use of AI and big data in economic prediction
- Early warning indicators for inflation and financial crises
- Nowcasting GDP and inflation with real-time data
- Integrating alternative data sources (satellite, social, payments data)
Module 5: Policy Simulation and Scenario Analysis
- Designing and interpreting policy scenarios
- Fiscal-monetary policy interaction models
- Shock analysis and sensitivity testing
- Macroeconomic risk modeling and stress testing
- Communicating uncertainty and model outcomes to decision-makers
Module 6: Country Applications and Regional Case Studies
- Lessons from inflation-targeting regimes in Africa
- Modeling exchange rate dynamics in commodity-dependent economies
- Fiscal dominance and its forecasting implications
- Integrating climate and sustainability risks into macro models
- Case study: Forecasting in emerging and frontier markets
Module 7: Strengthening Forecasting Frameworks and Institutional Capacity
- Building forecasting teams and governance structures
- Model documentation, transparency, and review processes
- Integration of forecasting into monetary policy frameworks
- Data governance and collaboration between central bank departments
- Benchmarking forecasting practices across central banks
General Notes
- The instructor led trainings are delivered using a blended learning approach and comprises of presentations, guided sessions of practical exercise, web-based tutorials and group work. Our facilitators are seasoned industry experts with years of experience, working as professional and trainers in these fields.
- The participants should be reasonably proficient in English as all facilitation and course materials will be offered in English.
- Upon successful completion of this training, participants will be issued with a certificate.
- The training will be held at Kincaid Training Centre. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments and lunch.
- All participants will additionally cater for their, travel expenses, visa application, insurance, and other personal expenses.
- Accommodation and airport pickup are arranged upon request. For reservations contact the Training coordinator at Email: training@kincaiddevelopmentcenter.org or Tel: +254 724592901
- This training can also be customized to suit the needs of your institution upon request. You can have it delivered in our Kincaid Training Centre or at a convenient location.
For further inquiries, please contact us on Tel: +254 724592901 or send mail to training@kincaiddevelopmentcenter.org
Payments are due upon registration. Payment should be sent to our Bank account before commencement of training and proof of payment sent to training@kincaiddevelopmentcenter.org